CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Group to Take Shape after June Matches
Nicholas Spiller
For a region of World Cup qualifying that is typically dominated by the United States and Mexico, the first few matches have provided a fair share of upsets that have left the hexagonal group entirely in the balance.
Over the next two weeks, the six teams will engage in several more games, but will anyone actually be able to pull away from the pack, or will the CONCACAF World Cup qualification stay shrouded in mystery until the last set of matches in the fall?
Several surprising results have resulted in a table that currently is separated from top to bottom by just 4 points. Mexico leapt into the top spot after a recent 1-0 victory over Jamaica, but since they have played an extra game, could soon drop several places as the other teams catch up. Their three draws to open the group play did them few favors and has the soccer nation concerned.
The USA suffered an embarrassing loss in Honduras to open play, resulting in a lag in the standings. A win against Costa Rica and a hard-earned draw in Mexico's tricky Azteca Stadium bodes well for the rest of the matches as their toughest test is now in the past. Many will see the upcoming games as being relatively soft, with a trip to Jamaica followed by two home matches against Honduras and Panama.
The difference between home and away matches in CONCACAF qualifying cannot be understated. While America and Mexico play on pristine soccer fields behind their fans, the smaller nations in the group play their home games on rough, patchy fields behind a mob of their own rowdy supporters.
Upset matches away from home are no strangers to the region. And so while one would assume that the USA should dominate Jamaica in Kingston on Friday, you only have to look back to last September when the "The Reggae Boyz" stunned the Americans with a 2-1 victory to understand that this will be no relaxing beach trip to the Caribbean interrupted by a breeze of a soccer match!
The USA has also shown a remarkable display of inconsistency throughout the years, beating European powerhouses like Spain, Italy, and most recently Germany, while also succumbing to defeats against the likes of Panama, Paraguay, Belgium, and the aforementioned Jamaica and Honduras. Just when people get excited after a big victory, the team stutters to a pathetic defeat.
However, there are bright signs for the games ahead. Striker Jozy Altidore rediscovered his goal-scoring prowess with a fine volley against Germany last week, and other players like Michael Bradley and Clint Dempsey have put in positive displays.
Avenging Jamaica and pushing on to beat Panama and Honduras on home soil should really be a formality for this talented American side. Although fan-favorite and playmaking star Landon Donovan has yet to be invited back to the team, there is enough firepower in the squad to push America to the top of the World Cup qualifying group by the end of this month.
Fortunately, this qualifying group does not need to be won for the USA to secure a trip to the World Cup in Brazil next summer. The top three teams qualify directly, while even the fourth spot results in a shot at redemption through a playoff series against New Zealand. If America cannot secure at least fourth in this group of six teams, the soccer squad will have to do a large amount of soul searching.
Nevertheless, as things stand America is only in the fourth spot, and with such a grand prize of a World Cup trip on the horizon, every team is desperately battling for national glory.
Jamaica has several key players who play for the Portland Timbers in the MLS, including experienced goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts and striker Ryan Johnson. Although Jamaica hasn't qualified for a World Cup since France 1998, they are certainly hoping to make the trip to Brazil and gave Mexico a real test before losing just 1-0.
Panama has never qualified for the World Cup but is currently unbeaten in the group and lie in second place. With qualification becoming a real possibility, they will surely be up for the fight. Honduras already has proven their capabilities by beating America in their home stadium. They have a talented squad that has earned success with a trip to the 2010 World Cup. At the 2012 Olympics they beat Spain and nearly topped Brazil.
With stars like Jerry Bengston, Roger Espinoza, Winston Palacios, and Emilio Izaguirre playing well abroad, Honduras is a very competitive team and will be a test for America.
And so with CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers set to continue in the coming days, the USA likely has their hands full, though they are favored in each match. Perhaps America will be able to establish some distance from the pack and set up a relaxing qualification run.
Something tells me however that this team likes to make things tricky, and that we will still be concerned over their qualification through the last set of games in October. I predict a draw in Jamaica, a win against Panama, and another draw against Honduras, pushing the team forward but preventing a comfortable run-in. It sure will be an interesting set of games to watch!
© Nicholas Spiller & Soccerphile.com
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