Mexico Could Miss Out On 2014 World Cup

Mexico Might Very Well Miss Out on the World Cup

Nicholas Spiller

With just two games left in the CONCACAF region of World Cup qualifiers, a major surprise is brewing. Mexico may fail to qualify for Brazil in 2014! Tied for 4th place in a group of 6, and with a new manager after the recent firing of Jose Manuel de la Torre, this team has fallen to pieces and now has a major task ahead just to get into position to qualify for the World Cup with a playoff fixture against New Zealand! How has such a respectable soccer nation fallen so far?

It has been painful for Mexican fans to watch. Their once formidable home, the Azteca Stadium, has now been an eerie coliseum of disappointment. With 100,000 clamoring fans, CONCACAF teams have often struggled here historically, but Mexico has failed to notch a win in any of the games there in this round. With 3 draws and a loss, there hasn’t been much to get the fans excited!

And these are certainly not powerhouse teams rumbling into town with world-class players; this is Jamaica, Costa Rica, the USA, and Honduras. These are teams that Mexico has grown used to beating at home. America is a solid performer, but they earned their first ever point in Azteca Stadium for World Cup qualifying there last March. In the course of this year, Mexico has lost their cutting edge and flair, and they are about to miss out on the 2014 World Cup.

Although the nation has fired their head coach, to me it is all about the players.  For a country that once boasted the brightest young strikers at Arsenal (Carlos Vela) and Manchester United (Javier "Chicarito" Hernandez), Mexico has not been able to find the back of the net. Through the 8 matches in this final group stage, Mexico has only scored 4 goals.

Unfortunately, the careers of both Vela and Hernandez have stalled internationally and with those clubs.  While Vela has finally found a home in Spain with Real Sociedad, his personal differences with the prior Mexico management have held him away from the team.  Perhaps with a new manager in the fold, the re-introduction of Carlos Vela to the Mexican National team will be the last throw of the dice in their final two qualifiers.

Meanwhile, Javier Hernandez was supposed to grow into a superstar. Unfortunately, ever since Dutch striker Robin van Persie moved to Manchester, Hernandez has been placed squarely on the backburner. He has yet to make a start this season and usually comes on as a substitute.  Through four games, Chicharito has yet to score. Certainly his position at the club has left him short of confidence, and the Mexican national team displays are evidence of that.

Another young player that was once touted as a Mexican rising star is Giovani dos Santos.  He emerged onto the scene with an incredible 2011 Gold Cup final with a brilliant chip goal that sealed the cup for Mexico against the United States.  Having just moved to Villareal in Spain over the summer, dos Santos has played very well, and recently scored an equalizer to earn his club a draw against Real Madrid. But such form has not been present with Mexico and time is running out. Perhaps he can help inspire the team to glory, but he has been pretty absent so far. Additionally, I see a large feeling of disbelief present within the team.

With 1 win, 5 draws, and 2 losses in this group of qualification, Mexico clearly lacks a decisive edge.  4 of the draws have produced 0-0 scorelines and that sums up the problem for me. The players are not outplayed. They have a quality team, but there has not been enough creativity offensively to break down their opponents. CONCACAF teams come into the Azteca Stadium and set up shop, with a plan to defend for their lives. In the past, Mexico has still been able to break down defenses and score. Now, they cannot.

Perhaps the youth in the team is causing the underperformances. While there are several mature and experienced leaders within the team like Gerrardo Torrado and Carlos Salcido, the vast majority of the players are young, especially in the forward part of the field that needs to score goals. The trio of Hernandez, Vela, and dos Santos are in their mid-20's, and while they should be entering that age where they begin to assert themselves as stars, none has risen to the challenge.

In the immediate future there still is hope yet that Mexico can qualify for the World Cup.  They sit in 4th place tied with Panama, a team that they play in October. At home, this will be the last stand for Mexico. They should win this game, but with the current look of the team I have serious doubts. The qualifying round wraps up with a trip to Costa Rica, and while that team has already cemented their place in Brazil next summer, they would love to finish off the Mexicans with a win.

Fortunately for Mexico, even if they finish outside of the top 3 in the group that secure automatic qualification, there is still the opportunity to qualify via a two-legged playoff against New Zealand. While adding two fixtures and a trip around the world is not ideal, it could be the necessary route for Mexico.

But the major issue I see here goes beyond just qualifying for the World Cup.  Even against all these odds, Mexico will likely make the grade to play in Brazil, but the problem I foresee is what happens when they get there For a squad that usually progresses to the knockout round at World Cups, Mexico will struggle to get any result against one of the top 32 teams worldwide.  They cannot even beat Jamaica in their feared home stadium! What will happen when they square off against Germany or Argentina? Mexico faces a very real possibility of public humiliation at the 2014 World Cup.

But what can the team do? Mexico needs to regroup and come up with a new game plan; one that gives dos Santos and Hernandez the freedom to find chances and goals. They need to think about recalling Carlos Vela to the team and putting aside all their past squabbles. Hopefully new manager Luis Fernando Tena can inject some life into this squad and get a couple results.

Needless to say, the Mexico v Panama match will be a tantalizing fixture, with both nations desperate for a win.  Will Mexico qualify for the World Cup? I think yes, but they certainly will not be heading to Brazil with any confidence.

© Nicholas Spiller & Soccerphile.com