Been betting on football for roughly 6 years. Started small during that 2018 World Cup in Russia, making every rookie mistake imaginable. Dropped $200 on Brazil to win the whole thing at terrible odds.
Gone in 90 minutes.
Tournament betting turned out to be a completely different animal compared to league betting. Learned this the hard way during Euro 2020 (which actually happened in 2021). Lost about $340 just in the group stages because I was treating matches like a regular season where form actually carries over week to week.
The Setup Changes Everything
I started paying attention to travel schedules after that disaster. Venue locations, time zones, all the stuff people ignore when they're scrolling through team rankings and backing whoever FIFA rates highest.
When World Cup 2026 kicks off across Canada, the USA, and Mexico, we're talking about teams flying between countries for matches. Teams in certain groups are basically getting home advantage while others are doing cross-continent road trips that would exhaust anyone.
Mexico plays their opener at altitude in Mexico City. Good luck to whoever faces them there.
I started using RexBet Sportsbook for my tournament plays around this time. Not gonna lie, I picked them mostly because a friend mentioned their tournament specials were actually worth checking out instead of the standard moneyline garbage most books offer.
My Approach Now vs. Before
I used to bet on matches.
Now I bet on situations, and that shift changed everything for my results. In Euro 2024, I noticed Spain had the easiest travel schedule by about 870 kilometers compared to other top teams. They also had 4 days rest between every knockout game while other teams were grinding on short rest. Guess who won?
For 2026, I'm already mapping out which teams get stuck at AT&T Stadium in Dallas versus who gets to stay on the coast where temperatures don't hit 95 degrees in June.
What Actually Works
I keep a simple spreadsheet now with travel distance between matches, days of rest, historical performance at altitude for Mexico venues, average temperature at each stadium during summer months.
Sounds like overkill to some people. But I'm up 23% on tournament bets since I started tracking this stuff back in 2022, and before that I was down maybe 15% lifetime on World Cups and Euros combined.
You don't need fancy models or inside information. You just need to think about what actually affects players on the pitch. A team flying from Monterrey to Toronto isn't the same team that just played down the road.
I've stopped betting on every single match too. Used to put money on 4 or 5 games a day during group stages because I was bored and wanted action. Now I wait for spots where I actually see an angle worth taking.
Quality over quantity.
Look, I'm not saying I've got everything figured out. Still lose plenty of bets. But at least now when I lose, I understand why instead of just blaming bad luck or referee decisions.